Triple-I Update: Atlantic Hurricane Season to Have ‘Well Above-Average’ Activity

For immediate release
Florida Press Office: Mark Friedlander, 904-806-7813, markf@iii.org  

ST. JOHNS, Fla., June 2, 2022—An updated 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast released today by Colorado State University (CSU) envisions a “well above-average” level of tropical cyclone activity between June and November.

Led by Phil Klotzbach, PhD, also a non-resident scholar at the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I), the CSU forecast team released its initial 2022 seasonal outlook on April 7. In its updated 2022 forecast, CSU now anticipates 20 named storms rather than 19, 10 hurricanes instead of nine, and five major hurricanes as opposed to four. Major hurricanes are those with wind speeds reaching Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

A typical season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season officially started yesterday and continues through Nov. 30.

“With the National Hurricane Center already tracking areas of potential tropical development this week, all signs point to another active season,” said Sean Kevelighan, CEO, Triple-I. “Residents who live in coastal states from Maine to Texas are vulnerable to the direct impacts of hurricanes and tropical storms. All it takes is one storm to make it an active season for you and your family so now is the time to prepare.”

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season produced the third-most named storms on record. Seven of last year’s 21 named storms were hurricanes, with four reaching major hurricane intensity. Category 4 Hurricane Ida made landfall in Louisiana on Aug. 29, 2021, and then caused deadly flooding along the East Coast a few days later. 

“Homeowners and business owners should review their policies with an insurance professional to make sure they have the right types, and amounts, of insurance to protect their properties from damage caused by either wind or water. That also means exploring whether they need flood coverage since flood-caused damage is not covered under standard homeowners, condo, renters, or business insurance policies. In addition, homeowners should take steps to make their residences more resilient to windstorms and torrential rain by installing roof tie-downs and a good drainage system,” Kevelighan recommended.

The updated CSU forecast indicates there is a 76 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the continental U.S. this year. This includes a 51 percent chance for the U.S. East Coast, including the state of Florida, and a 50 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall between the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas.

“The odds of El Niño for this year’s hurricane season are now quite low, and the odds of La Niña conditions have increased relative to what was projected with our initial outlook in early April,” Klotzbach said. “Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are now warmer than normal, while the eastern Atlantic is much warmer than normal. This type of sea surface temperature configuration is considered quite favorable for an active 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.”

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Video
Dr. Klotzbach Discusses Updated 2022 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast

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